Correcting misclassification errors in crowdsourced ecological data: A Bayesian perspective

Many research domains use data elicited from "citizen scientists" when a direct measure of a process is expensive or infeasible. However, participants may report incorrect estimates or classifications due to their lack of skill. We demonstrate how Bayesian hierarchical models can be used to learn about latent variables of interest, while accounting for the participants' abilities. The model is described in the context of an ecological application that involves crowdsourced classifications of georeferenced coral-reef images from the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. The latent variable of interest is the proportion of coral cover, which is a common indicator of coral reef health. The participants' abilities are expressed in terms of sensitivity and specificity of a correctly classified set of points on the images. The model also incorporates a spatial component, which allows prediction of the latent variable in locations that have not been surveyed. We show that the model outperforms traditional weighted-regression approaches used to account for uncertainty in citizen science data. Our approach produces more accurate regression coefficients and provides a better characterization of the latent process of interest. This new method is implemented in the probabilistic programming language Stan and can be applied to a wide number of problems that rely on uncertain citizen science data.Comment: 18 figures, 5 table

Large serological survey showing cocirculation of Ebola and Marburg viruses in Gabonese bat populations, and a high seroprevalence of both viruses in Rousettus aegyptiacus

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Ebola and Marburg viruses cause highly lethal hemorrhagic fevers in humans. Recently, bats of multiple species have been identified as possible natural hosts of <it>Zaire ebolavirus </it>(ZEBOV) in Gabon and Republic of Congo, and also of <it>marburgvirus </it>(MARV) in Gabon and Democratic Republic of Congo.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We tested 2147 bats belonging to at least nine species sampled between 2003 and 2008 in three regions of Gabon and in the Ebola epidemic region of north Congo for IgG antibodies specific for ZEBOV and MARV.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Overall, IgG antibodies to ZEBOV and MARV were found in 4% and 1% of bats, respectively. ZEBOV-specific antibodies were found in six bat species (<it>Epomops franqueti, Hypsignathus monstrosus, Myonycteris torquata, Micropteropus pusillus, Mops condylurus </it>and <it>Rousettus aegyptiacus</it>), while MARV-specific antibodies were only found in <it>Rousettus aegyptiacus </it>and <it>Hypsignathus monstrosus</it>. The prevalence of MARV-specific IgG was significantly higher in <it>R. aegyptiacus </it>members captured inside caves than elsewhere. No significant difference in prevalence was found according to age or gender. A higher prevalence of ZEBOV-specific IgG was found in pregnant females than in non pregnant females.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These findings confirm that ZEBOV and MARV co-circulate in Gabon, the only country where bats infected by each virus have been found. IgG antibodies to both viruses were detected only in <it>Rousettus aegyptiacus</it>, suggesting that this bat species may be involved in the natural cycle of both Marburg and Ebola viruses. The presence of MARV in Gabon indicates a potential risk for a first human outbreak. Disease surveillance should be enhanced in areas near caves.</p

Spatial heterogeneity of habitat suitability for Rift Valley fever occurrence in Tanzania: an ecological niche modelling approach

Despite the long history of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Tanzania, extent of its suitable habitat in the country remains unclear. In this study we investigated potential effects of temperature, precipitation, elevation, soil type, livestock density, rainfall pattern, proximity to wild animals, protected areas and forest on the habitat suitability for RVF occurrence in Tanzania. Presence-only records of 193 RVF outbreak locations from 1930 to 2007 together with potential predictor variables were used to model and map the suitable habitats for RVF occurrence using ecological niche modelling. Ground-truthing of the model outputs was conducted by comparing the levels of RVF virus specific antibodies in cattle, sheep and goats sampled from locations in Tanzania that presented different predicted habitat suitability values. Habitat suitability values for RVF occurrence were higher in the northern and central-eastern regions of Tanzania than the rest of the regions in the country. Soil type and precipitation of the wettest quarter contributed equally to habitat suitability (32.4% each), followed by livestock density (25.9%) and rainfall pattern (9.3%). Ground-truthing of model outputs revealed that the odds of an animal being seropositive for RVFV when sampled from areas predicted to be most suitable for RVF occurrence were twice the odds of an animal sampled from areas least suitable for RVF occurrence (95% CI: 1.43, 2.76, p < 0.001). The regions in the northern and central-eastern Tanzania were more suitable for RVF occurrence than the rest of the regions in the country. The modelled suitable habitat is characterised by impermeable soils, moderate precipitation in the wettest quarter, high livestock density and a bimodal rainfall pattern. The findings of this study should provide guidance for the design of appropriate RVF surveillance, prevention and control strategies which target areas with these characteristics

Heavy Flavour Production at Tevatron and Parton Shower Effects

We present hadron-level predictions from the Monte Carlo generator Cascade and numerical calculations of charm and beauty production at the Fermilab Tevatron within the framework of the $k_T$-factorization QCD approach. Our consideration is based on the CCFM-evolved unintegrated gluon densities in a proton. The performed analysis covers the total and differential cross sections of open charm and beauty quarks, $B$ and $D$ mesons (or rather muons from their semileptonic decays) and the total and differential cross sections of $b \bar b$ di-jet hadroproduction. We study the theoretical uncertainties of our calculations and investigate the effects coming from parton showers in initial and final states. Our predictions are compared with the recent experimental data taken by the D0 and CDF collaborations. Special attention is put on the specific angular correlations between the final-state particles. We demonstrate that the final state parton shower plays a crucial role in the description of such observables. The decorrelated part of angular separations can be fully described, if the process $gg^*\rightarrow gg$ is included.Comment: Fig 8,9 10 replaced, small corrections in text A discussion of the delta phi results is adde

Implant removal associated complications in children with limb fractures due to trauma

Surger

A Genome-Wide Analysis of Promoter-Mediated Phenotypic Noise in Escherichia coli

Gene expression is subject to random perturbations that lead to fluctuations in the rate of protein production. As a consequence, for any given protein, genetically identical organisms living in a constant environment will contain different amounts of that particular protein, resulting in different phenotypes. This phenomenon is known as “phenotypic noise.” In bacterial systems, previous studies have shown that, for specific genes, both transcriptional and translational processes affect phenotypic noise. Here, we focus on how the promoter regions of genes affect noise and ask whether levels of promoter-mediated noise are correlated with genes' functional attributes, using data for over 60% of all promoters in Escherichia coli. We find that essential genes and genes with a high degree of evolutionary conservation have promoters that confer low levels of noise. We also find that the level of noise cannot be attributed to the evolutionary time that different genes have spent in the genome of E. coli. In contrast to previous results in eukaryotes, we find no association between promoter-mediated noise and gene expression plasticity. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that, in bacteria, natural selection can act to reduce gene expression noise and that some of this noise is controlled through the sequence of the promoter region alon

Adaptive Evolution of the Myo6 Gene in Old World Fruit Bats (Family: Pteropodidae)

PMCID: PMC3631194This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Internet-based medical education: a realist review of what works, for whom and in what circumstances

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Cranial Pathologies in a Specimen of Pachycephalosaurus

. The specimen features two large oval depressions on the dorsal surface, accompanied by numerous circular pits on the margin and inner surface of the larger depressions.In order to identify the origin of these structures, computed tomography (CT) data and morphological characteristics of the specimen are analyzed and compared with similar osteological structures in fossil and extant archosaurs caused by taphonomic processes, non-pathologic bone resorption, and traumatic infection/inflammatory origins. The results of these analyses suggest that the structures are pathologic lesions likely resulting from a traumatic injury and followed by secondary infection at the site.The presence of lesions on a frontoparietal dome, and the exclusivity of their distribution along the dorsal dome surface, offers further insight into frontoparietal dome function and supports previously hypothesized agonistic behavior in pachycephalosaurids